Simulate exact-binomial seasonal monitoring scenarios

Simulate seasonal rare-event trials monitored with exact-binomial efficacy bounds derived from a `gsSurv` design. This helper supports fixed enrollment and a simple blinded information-adaptive enrollment rule while keeping the spending framework fixed through the original `gsSurv` design object.

The function summarizes empirical rejection rates (Type I error or power), futility stopping rates (binding interpretation), Monte Carlo standard errors, average final events, average total enrollment, and average number of informative looks.

Usage

simBinomialSeasonalExact(
  gsD,
  ve = c(0.3, 0.8),
  nsim = c(600, 600),
  control_event_rate = c(0.003, 0.003),
  season_length = 0.5,
  dropout_rate = 0.1,
  planned_counts = NULL,
  timing = NULL,
  enroll_control_per_look = NULL,
  enroll_experimental_per_look = NULL,
  adaptive = c(FALSE, TRUE),
  adapt_looks = NULL,
  max_multiplier = 2,
  usTime = NULL,
  lsTime = NULL,
  final_full_spending = FALSE,
  seed = NULL,
  return_trials = FALSE
)

Arguments

gsD: A `gsSurv` object with `test.type` 1 or 4.
ve: Numeric vector of vaccine efficacy (or prevention efficacy) scenarios to simulate.
nsim: Integer scalar or vector giving the number of simulations per element of `ve`.
control_event_rate: Numeric scalar or vector with control seasonal event probabilities corresponding to `ve`.
season_length: Numeric scalar > 0 giving season duration in years.
dropout_rate: Seasonal dropout probability in `[0, 1)`.
planned_counts: Optional increasing integer vector of planned cumulative events at analyses. If `NULL`, these are derived from `timing * toInteger(gsD)$n.I[k]`.
timing: Optional increasing cumulative spending-time vector ending at 1 used to derive `planned_counts` when `planned_counts = NULL`.
enroll_control_per_look: Optional control-arm enrollment by look (scalar or length `k` integer vector). If `NULL`, this is calibrated from `planned_counts` under the largest value of `ve`.
enroll_experimental_per_look: Optional experimental-arm enrollment by look (scalar or length `k` integer vector). If `NULL`, this is set using `gsD$ratio` from `enroll_control_per_look`.
adaptive: Logical vector specifying whether to simulate fixed and/or adaptive enrollment scenarios.
adapt_looks: Integer vector of look indices after which adaptation can be applied (default: all interim looks).
max_multiplier: Maximum multiplicative enrollment increase at a look when adaptation is enabled.
usTime: Optional upper spending-time override passed to [toBinomialExact()]. If `NULL`, spending time defaults to `planned_counts / planned_final_events` (capped at 1).
lsTime: Optional lower spending-time override for `test.type = 4`. If `NULL`, this defaults to `usTime`.
final_full_spending: Logical scalar. If `TRUE`, force full alpha spending at the final analysis even when the final observed total event count is below planned final events.
seed: Optional integer seed for reproducibility.
return_trials: Logical. If `TRUE`, return trial-level simulation outcomes.

Value

A list with:

`summary`: Data frame with scenario-level summaries.
`planned`: List with planned counts, exact design object, and planned/calibrated enrollment by look.
`inputs`: List of simulation inputs used.
`trials`: Optional trial-level data frame (`NULL` unless `return_trials = TRUE`).

Examples

x <- gsSurv(
  k = 3, test.type = 4, alpha = 0.025, beta = 0.1, timing = c(1 / 3, 2 / 3),
  sfu = sfHSD, sfupar = 1, sfl = sfHSD, sflpar = -2,
  lambdaC = -log(1 - 0.003) / 0.5,
  hr = 0.2, hr0 = 0.7, eta = -log(1 - 0.1) / 0.5,
  gamma = c(1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0), R = c(2, 10, 2, 10, 2, 10),
  T = 42, minfup = 6, ratio = 3
) |> toInteger()

simBinomialSeasonalExact(
  gsD = x,
  ve = c(0.3, 0.8),
  nsim = c(50, 50),
  control_event_rate = c(0.003, 0.003),
  seed = 123
)$summary
#>    scenario  ve control_event_rate adaptive nsim rejection_rate      mc_se
#> 1 Scenario1 0.3              0.003    FALSE   50           0.02 0.01979899
#> 2 Scenario1 0.3              0.003     TRUE   50           0.04 0.02771281
#> 3 Scenario2 0.8              0.003    FALSE   50           0.86 0.04907138
#> 4 Scenario2 0.8              0.003     TRUE   50           0.98 0.01979899
#>   futility_stop_rate futility_mc_se mean_total_events mean_total_enrolled
#> 1               0.98     0.01979899             70.30            16920.00
#> 2               0.96     0.02771281             72.72            18379.52
#> 3               0.16     0.05184593             35.66            16920.00
#> 4               0.02     0.01979899             46.84            21251.22
#>   mean_looks
#> 1       2.52
#> 2       2.32
#> 3       3.00
#> 4       3.00

Usage

Arguments

Value

See also

Examples